Bases de datos: Estadísticas de Chile

Un corto tiempo atrás se han publicado algunos trabajos con cifras de largo plazo de Chile, en temas de de inversión, capital y cuentas fiscales. 

En uno de los trabajos,  Inversión y capital: Chile, 1833-2010, José Díaz B. y Jeanne Gert Wagner, destacan "This paper reports sources and methods utilized when estimating Chilean gross investment and net capital stock of fixed assets between 1833 and 2010.Two types of assets are identified: (i)machinery and equipment and (ii)construction (total). The main source for machinery investments is imports and a price for such goods based on Chilean import structure and export data of providing countries. In the case of construction, we rely on public expenditure on infrastructure and indirect measures for private activity. From 1940 onwards all data is obtained from national accounts. Capital is generated applying the perpetual inventory method. Main findings are: (i)Chile starts from a quite low capital output ratio around 1830, (ii)in the second half of the 19th Century, and specially due to the expansion of construction, the economy reaches capital output ratios comparable with other countries, (iii)the relative importance of machinery and equipment in total investment starts at practically zero increasing along the 170 years, (iv)capital per laborer expands systematically but slowly"

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Por otra parte, en el abstract de Construcción de Cuentas Fiscales1810-2010: Dos Exploraciones Específicas, sus autores (José Díaz B. ; Constanza Gómez M. ; Jeanne Gert Wagner): "The aim of this working paper is twofold: first, to extend the series provided by Jofre, Lüders and Wagner (2000) until 2010 and second, check specific series in the light of additional information on the subject."

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Artículo: Physiological constraints and comparative economic development

Carl-Johan Dalgaard,  y Holger Strulik publicaron Physiological constraints and comparative economic development. Detallan en su resumen "It is a well known fact that economic development and distance to the equator are positively correlated variables in the world today. It is perhaps less well known that as recently as 1500 C.E. it was the other way around. The present paper provides a theory of why the 'latitude gradient' seemingly changed sign in the course of the last half millennium. In particular, we develop a dynamic model of economic and physiological development in which households decide upon the number and nutrition of their offspring. In this setting we demonstrate that relatively high metabolic costs of fertility, which may have emerged due to positive selection towards greater cold tolerance in locations away from the equator, would work to stifle economic development during pre-industrial times, yet allow for an early onset of sustained growth. As a result, the theory suggests a reversal of fortune whereby economic activity gradually shifts away from the equator in the process of long-term economic development"

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Artículos: How Well Did Facts Travel to Support Protracted Debate on the History of the Great Divergence between Western Europe and Imperial China?

Deng, Kent y Patrick O'Brien publicaron How Well Did Facts Travel to Support Protracted Debate on the History of the Great Divergence between Western Europe and Imperial China? 
En el resumen informan: "This paper tackles the issue of how reliable the currently circulated 'facts' really are regarding the 'Great Divergence' debate. Our findings indicate strongly that 'facts' of premodern China are often of low quality and fragmented. Consequently, the application of these 'facts' can be misleading and harmful."

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Artículos: When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britain


Alan de Bromhead, AlanAlan Fernihough,  Markus Lampe y Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke  publicaron When Britain turned inward: Protection and the shift towards Empire in interwar Britainhttp://econpapers.repec.org/paper/nbrnberwo/23164.htm. En su abstract leemos: "International trade became much less multilateral during the 1930s. Previous studies, looking at aggregate trade flows, have argued that discriminatory trade policies had comparatively little to do with this. Using highly disaggregated information on the UK's imports and trade policies, we find that policy can explain the majority of Britain's shift towards Imperial imports in the 1930s. Trade policy mattered, a lot."

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Artículos: What is global history now?

Jeremy Adelman de la Universidad de Princeton publicó un muy interesante ensayo sobre la historiografía y el futuro de la historia global: "What is global history now?, Historians cheered globalism with work about cosmopolitans and border-crossing, but the power of place never went away"
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Artículo: The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A “Change of Regime” Analysis

Sebastian Edwards escribió The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A “Change of Regime” Analysis, en cuyo abstract leemos "In this paper I analyze the London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933, an almost forgotten episode in U.S. monetary history. I study how the Conference shaped dollar policy during the second half of 1933 and early 1934. I use daily data to investigate the way in which the Conference and related policies associated to the gold standard affected commodity prices, bond prices, and the stock market. My results show that the Conference itself did not impact commodity prices or the stock market. However, it had a small effect on bond prices. I do find that the events associated with the abandonment of the gold standard impacted prices in a significant way, even before the actual monetary and currency channels were at work. These results are consistent with the “change in regime” hypothesis of Sargent (1983).

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Artículo: The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971

Michael D. Bordo publicó The Operation and Demise of the Bretton Woods System; 1958 to 1971, en cuyo resumen señala: "This chapter revisits the history of the origins, operation and demise of the Bretton Woods International Monetary System. The Bretton Woods system was created by the !944 Articles of Agreement to design a new international monetary order for the post war at a global conference organized by the US Treasury at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods ,New Hampshire at the height of World War II. The Articles represented a compromise between the American plan of Harry Dexter White and the British plan of John Maynard Keynes. The compromise created an adjustable peg system based on the US dollar convertible into gold at $35 per ounce along with capital controls. It was designed to combine the advantages of fixed exchange rates of the pre World War I gold standard with some flexibility to handle large real shocks. The compromise gave members both exchange rate stability and the independence for their monetary authorities to maintain full employment. It took over a decade for the fully current account convertible system to get started. The system only lasted for 12 years from 1959 to 1971 but it did deliver remarkable economic performance. The BWS evolved into a gold dollar standard which depended on the US monetary authorities following sound low inflation policies. As the System evolved it faced the same severe fundamental problems as in the interwar gold exchange standard of: adjustment, confidence and liquidity. The adjustment problem meant that member countries with balance of payments deficits, in the face of nominal rigidities, ran the gauntlet between currency crises and recessions. Surplus countries had to sterilize dollar inflows to prevent inflation. The U.S. as center country faced the Triffin dilemma. With the growth of trade and income member countries held more and more dollars instead of scarce gold as reserves generated by a growing US balance of payments deficit. As outstanding dollar liabilities grew relative to the US monetary gold stock confidence in the dollar would wane raising the likelihood of a run on Fort Knox.This led to the possibility that the US would follow tight financial policies to reduce the deficit thereby starving the rest of the world of needed liquidity leading to global deflation and depression as occurred in the 1930s. Enormous efforts by the US, the G10 and international institutions were devoted to solving this problem. As it turned out, after 1965 the key problem facing the global economy was inflation, not deflation, reflecting expansionary Federal Reserve policies to finance the Vietnam war and the Great Inflation. US inflation was exported through the balance of payments to the surplus countries of Europe and Japan leading them in 1971 to begin converting their outstanding dollar holdings into gold. In reaction President Richard Nixon closed the US gold window ending the BWS"

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Artículo: Australian Exceptionalism? Inequality and Living Standards 1821-1871

Laura Panza Jeffrey G.Williamson publicaron Australian Exceptionalism? Inequality and Living Standards 1821-1871. En el abstract destacan "Although the Australian historical literature covering the colonies' first century from the initial convict settlement in 1788 at Botany Bay to the post-gold rush census of 1871 is packed with assertions about Australian living standards and inequality exceptionalism - compared with western Europe and America, there has been very little evidence offered to confirm them. This paper will establish the Australian facts about living standards and inequality trends between the 1820s and the 1870s. Where do we find exceptionalism, compared with the United States, and where not? And can exceptionalism be readily explained by the fact that the US was undergoing a dramatic industrial revolution while Australia was following its commodity-exporting comparative advantage? We

Artículo: Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries?

Georg Graetz (Uppsala University) y Guy Michaels (London School of Economics) acaban de publicar Is Modern Technology Responsible for Jobless Recoveries? En el resumen describen "Since the early 1990s, recoveries from recessions in the US have been plagued by weak employment growth. One possible explanation for these "jobless" recoveries is rooted in technological change: middle-skill jobs, often involving routine tasks, are lost during recessions, and the displaced workers take time to transition into other jobs (Jaimovich and Siu, 2014). But technological replacement of middle-skill workers is not unique to the US – it also takes place in other developed countries (Goos, Manning, and Salomons, 2014). So if jobless recoveries in the US are due to technology, we might expect to also see them elsewhere in the developed world. We test this possibility using data on recoveries from 71 recessions in 28 industries and 17 countries from 1970-2011. We find that though GDP recovered more slowly after recent recessions, employment did not. Industries that used more routine tasks, and those more exposed to robotization, did not recently experience slower employment recoveries. Finally, middle-skill employment did not recover more slowly after recent recessions, and this pattern was no different in routine-intensive industries. Taken together, this evidence suggests that technology is not causing jobless recoveries in developed countries outside the US" 

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